Working Futures 2014-2024

This UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) report provides a comprehensive and detailed model of the UK labour market. The prime focus is on the demand for skills as measured by employment by occupation and qualification, although the supply side is also considered. It projects the future size and shape of the labour market by considering employment prospects for up to 75 industries, 369 occupations, six broad qualification levels, gender and employment status. This edition of the report projects labour market information for the period 2014 to 2024. The view presented in this report is not the only possible future but represents a benchmark for debate and reflection that can be used to inform policy development and other choices and decisions.

Sectoral change is one of the key drivers of the changing demand for skills. The main analysis focuses on broad sectors, but this is built up from a much more detailed picture of change by industry. The report focuses on three main questions: Where will the jobs of the future be concentrated in the UK? What are the implications of this for skill demand, as measured by occupation and qualification? How does this compare with developments on the supply of skills? The projections are based on the use of a multi-sectoral, regional macroeconomic model, combined with occupational, replacement demand and qualification modules. The results take account of the latest official data published by the Office for National Statistics. A separate technical report authored by R. Wilson, M. May-Gillings, J. Pirie and R. Beaven provides full details of sources and methods used to produce the results, including information about even more detailed sub-national/sub-regional results.

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